College admissions officers expect competition to remain strong even as they brace for the potentially far-reaching consequences of the looming enrollment cliff, according to a new survey from global education company Kaplan.* Ninety percent predict that the 2026–2027 admissions cycle will be at least as competitive as the 2025–2026 cycle, including 11 percent who expect it to be much more competitive, 33 percent somewhat more competitive, and 46 percent about the same.

The findings challenge the assumption that a shrinking college-age population will automatically make the admissions process easier for applicants. In fact, admissions officers expect competition to remain strong even as the demographic pressures facing colleges and universities intensify.

At the same time, 81 percent are concerned about the impact of the enrollment cliff on higher education overall, while 56 percent are concerned about its impact on their own institution. More than two-thirds (68 percent) are concerned that the demographic shift could force a significant number of colleges and universities to close or merge, and 41 percent are concerned about its impact on their school’s ability to provide financial aid.

According to Common App, more than 1.5 million students submitted over 10.7 million applications during the 2025–2026 admissions cycle, a 6 percent increase from the previous year. And at some of the nation’s most selective institutions, competition remains intense, with several reporting record or near-record applicant pools and single-digit acceptance rates.

Jason Bedford, senior vice president, Kaplan, said:

“Families may hear ‘enrollment cliff’ and assume that fewer college-age students will mean an easier path to admission, but the reality is more complicated. Admissions officers still expect a competitive environment, while expressing significant concern about what demographic changes could mean for higher education. The enrollment cliff may create opportunities at some schools, but it could also affect financial aid, academic offerings, and the number of institutions available to students. Applicants shouldn’t assume the landscape will suddenly become easier; they should build a thoughtful college list, understand each school’s admissions and financial aid policies, and focus on submitting the strongest application possible.”

Other key Kaplan survey results:

  • Test Optional, Not Test Blind: 64 percent of admissions officers at test-optional colleges say that submitting a competitive SAT or ACT score helps an applicant’s chances of admission. That percentage has remained largely consistent for several years, underscoring that strong scores can still provide applicants with an edge.

  • Demonstrated Interest: More than half (52 percent) of admissions officers say demonstrated interest—including attending webinars or information sessions and contacting admissions staff—positively influences admissions decisions.

  • Testing Requirements May Be Making a Comeback: 16 percent of admissions officers at test-optional colleges say their institutions are either considering reinstating an SAT or ACT requirement or will definitely do so, roughly double the percentage in Kaplan’s survey last year. The finding comes as the University of California system publicly considers bringing the requirement back.

  • Rankings Skepticism: 70 percent believe college and university rankings have “lost some of their prestige over the last couple of years.” The 70 percent is unchanged from Kaplan’s 2025 survey.

Contact russell.schaffer@kaplan.com to speak with a college admissions expert at Kaplan.

*Methodology: Admissions officers from 212 of the nation’s top national, regional and liberal arts colleges and universities – as compiled by U.S. News & World Report – were polled by e-mail between July and September 2026.

About Kaplan

Kaplan, Inc. is a global education company that helps individuals and institutions advance their goals in an ever-changing world. Our broad portfolio of solutions helps students and professionals further their education and careers, universities and educational institutions attract and support students, and businesses maximize employee recruitment, retention, and development. Stanley Kaplan founded our company in 1938 with a mission to expand educational opportunities for students of all backgrounds. Today, our thousands of employees working in 40 countries/regions continue Stanley’s mission as they serve about 1.2 million students and professionals, 16,000 corporate clients, and 2,700 schools, school districts, colleges, and universities worldwide. Kaplan is a subsidiary of the Graham Holdings Company (NYSE: GHC). Learn more at kaplan.com.

Note to editors: Kaplan is a subsidiary of the Graham Holdings Company (NYSE: GHC)

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